Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton is officially on the clock.
On Tuesday, Cleveland sent the Alabama product a qualifying offer, sending him to restricted free agency.
With the move, the Cavaliers are in the driver’s seat: they can choose to match any other offer that Sexton receives from other teams.
But Sexton is a talented guard with several seasons of tape to show off.
So expect several teams to have interest in Sexton, even despite him coming off a season-ending knee injury.
The question is, which teams will have interest?
By the Numbers
Chris Fedor of cleveland.com broke the news of Sexton’s qualifying offer:
#Cavs have extended the qualifying offer to Collin Sexton, making him a restricted free agent, sources tell @clevelanddotcom
— Chris Fedor (@ChrisFedor) June 28, 2022
The qualifying offer is of note, given that the Cavaliers could have also worked out an extension with Sexton, preventing him from hitting free agency.
Is the qualifying offer a sign that Cleveland doesn’t believe Sexton will get the number he’s looking for in free agency?
Or is it simply a way to keep all of their options on the table moving forward?
What exactly might a Sexton contract look like, anyway?
Earlier in the summer, Fedor predicted that Sexton would look for a deal in the $18-$22 million per year range.
As it stands, only a handful of teams could pay that pretty penny to acquire Sexton’s services.
Here are two possibilities:
1. San Antonio Spurs
Heading into the draft, Fedor reported that the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons led the field among teams interested in Sexton.
But now that the Pistons landed Jaden Ivey, their need for Sexton has dipped dramatically.
Ditto for the Pacers, who presumably landed their wing of the future in Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin.
Initially, both the Pistons and Pacers featured starting guards with length, allowing them the flexibility of slotting in the undersized Sexton.
The San Antonio Spurs figure to offer a similar profile.
Fedor also listed the San Antonio Spurs as a team that was once upon a time interested in Sexton.
Dejounte Murray (6’4) offers a sizeable backcourt partner to pair with Sexton.
Add in Devin Vassel (6’7) at wing, and the Spurs are more than able to use their existing range to make up for whatever defensive deficit exists in Sexton’s game.
Further, Sexton could add a pop of offense to an already solid bunch.
Last season, the Spurs scored 113.2 points per game, top-10 in the league.
But their offensive rating was middling: 112.4.
Sexton’s above-average efficiency could be a big reason why that number goes up next season, should he throw on the silver and black.
With $31 million in cap space this summer, the Spurs are also one of the teams that could pull off this deal outright.
2. Dallas Mavericks
Staying in Texas now, this move would only happen in the instance that Jalen Brunson departs in free agency (presumably to the Knicks).
It would be a definite bummer for Dallas, but hey, let Brunson be someone else’s $100 million problem.
If Brunson does leave, the Mavs will need to fill his spot somehow.
Why not give Sexton a look?
Also, let’s set aside for a moment the fact that currently, the Mavs don’t quite have the financial ability to simply sign Sexton outright to the contract he’d look for.
In Sexton, the Mavs get a player who is a similarly efficient scorer to Brunson.
Worried about losing Brunson’s passing?
The Knicks have cleared $30M in salary cap space to offer Dallas' Jalen Brunson in the neighborhood of a max contract. The unloading of assets and contracts clearly shows the Knicks' confidence that they can secure Brunson once free agency opens on Thursday.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 29, 2022
Sexton’s career-high in assists is 4.4; Brunson’s is 4.8.
Listen, I understand Brunson has better shooting rates than Sexton.
The Mavs could also pair Sexton with the jumbo-sized and wildly talented Luka Doncic, keeping the backcourt from getting too small.
Sexton shouldn’t expect the same number of looks playing with Doncic as he did on a mediocre Cavs team.
But could he benefit from playing with one of the league’s best young stars?
Absolutely.
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