Last week, Cavaliers star Darius Garland made headlines with his bold prediction.
According to Garland, the Cavs are headed for the Eastern Conference Finals.
When, you might ask?
Next season.
It is indeed an audacious proclamation.
Garland was likely trying to hype himself and his teammates ahead of a big season.
But could there be more to the story than just hype?
That is to say, could the Cavs actually make a deep postseason run next season?
Yes, and here’s why.
Star Trio
While the age of “big threes” might be in the past, the Cavaliers have almost as strong a starting trio as any team.
In Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley, the Cavs have three young, ascendant stars.
In their time spent on the court together, the Cavs outscored opponents by eight points despite four fewer shots.
The trio out-rebounded (plus-3.4 total rebound percentage) and out-assisted (plus-5.7) the competition by leaps and bounds.
They aren’t on the level of say, a Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins/Klay Thompson trio.
We coming for blood next season pic.twitter.com/rYIscEktYR
— Cavaliers Nation (@WeAreCavsNation) July 27, 2022
Or even Boston’s trio of Robert Williams III, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brown.
But in one season together, Garland, Mobley, and Allen left fans thrilled for the future.
Defensive Identity
Here are the defensive stat lines of two teams, with their names covered.
Team A: Defensive Rating: 108.4; Defensive Rebounds/Game: 33.9; Defensive Rebound Rate: 73.5%; Steals: 7.4; Blocks: 3.2.
Team B: Defensive Rating: 108.9; Defensive Rebounds/Game: 34; Defensive Rebound Rate: 72.4%; Steals: 7.1; Blocks: 4.2.
The two teams aren’t that far from each other defensively.
Team A has the slight edge in rating, rebound rate, and steals, but Team B wins the day in defensive rebounds/game and blocks.
One of those teams went to the Conference Finals.
One of those teams bowed out after a rough loss to the Atlanta Hawks.
Okay, okay enough suspense.
Team A is the Miami Heat.
Team B is the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Miami finished the season one spot higher in defensive rating last season than the Cavaliers, who finished fifth overall last season.
Almost all of Cleveland’s success was due to its defensive identity.
Here are the other teams that finished in the top five: Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, and Miami Heat.
Three of those teams made conference finals; the Suns, while not conference finalists, had the league’s best regular season record by a long shot.
Had the Cavs managed better than a middling offensive rating, then they likely would have been unstoppable.
Bringing back Collin Sexton could go a long way towards providing a scoring punch much needed last season.
The Field
The one thing holding the Cavs back might be the field.
The Celtics will come back strong, as will the Miami Heat.
And the Milwaukee Bucks were a Khris Middleton injury away from likely repeating as Eastern Conference champs last season.
One of the coldest pics from our backcourt 🥶 pic.twitter.com/sN2tdE0fuo
— Cavaliers Nation (@WeAreCavsNation) July 27, 2022
Then there are the Sixers, who are a constant threat with Joel Embiid anchoring the paint.
The Hawks, Bulls, Knicks, and Nets should also be better as well.
Even the “bad teams” are fun to watch — the Magic with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Pacers’ revamped backcourt.
The Cavs have a steep mountain to climb, but they have it in them to win.
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